The Tories might experience a 10pt swing their way in the North West

31 October, 2019| Polling, GE2019

The Tories might experience a 10pt swing their way in the North West


New YouGov polling of the English regions suggests Tory encroachment on Labour's Leave-voting heartlands, outperforming what national polls are showing.


Photo Credit: Pool, Getty Images

During the 2017 election campaign YouGov published a series of high-sample polling of the English regions that proved a reliable indicator of voter variation throughout England.

The polling showed a surprising firming up of Labour support in the south, hinting at the potential for gains in seats such as Plymouth and Brighton. That polling was vindicated a few weeks later, and this year, YouGov have done it again, and what we can see is, like before, a great deal of regional variation.

Both the Conservatives and Labour are down on their 2017 scores, reflecting the national polling picture, but the fall for the Tories is much less than the fall for Labour in regions that have been traditionally loyal to the Labour cause. Because of this, it would be best visualising the changes by looking at the projected swings, were this polling to be borne true, to the Conservatives from Labour.

Voting intentions for the North West prove most stark, with a swing of 10.85pts from Labour to the Conservatives. The North East is of a similar strain, with a projected swing, if the polling bears out, of 7.55pts.

The swing in the North West is notable, particularly for its size. Very rarely have parties nationally scored swings in their favour of more than 10pts, and for the Conservatives to do in what is a typically solid Labour region is important.

Multiple explanations can be attributed to Labour’s collapse in the polls, but when it comes to the North West, I believe one sticks out. The rather lukewarm growth in the number certain to vote Labour from Labour’s 2017 supporters, as opposed to the more committed 2017 Conservative supporters, exacerbates the gap between red and blue, and either does so accurately, or with a very large health warning.

There is a general assumption in campaigns that the supporters a party loses throughout a parliament typically come home come election time. In the case of 2019, however, such ‘coming home’ so far, albeit with more than a month to go, appears notably lacklustre for Labour. This could be attributed, in part, to the higher than average proportion of Labour voters in the North West (as with the North East) previously voting Leave, but so far, such an attribution would be hard to say with certainty.

What can be said with certainty is that Labour’s performance in regions where it’s typically had stronger showings than on average, with the exception London, is, so far, dire.


Nigel Farage could move three in ten Labour Leave voters over to the Tories

21 September, 2019| Polling, Analysis, GE2019

Nigel Farage could move three in ten Labour Leave voters over to the Tories


New research suggests electors will be voting tactically in the coming election, with Leave voters open to persuasion from Brexit Party Leader Nigel Farage.


Photo: Jessica Taylor, Official House of Commons Photographer

New data from ComRes, commissioned by Britain Elects, has suggested tactical voting may play a decisive part come the next general election, with a significant proportion of Leave voters indicating they’d be willing to change their vote depending on which Brexit-supporting candidate is endorsed by Brexit Party leader Nigel Farage. Among these figures, a sizeable proportion of Labour Leave voters have indicated they’d be more likely to vote for a Brexit-supporting Conservative candidate if in the event of an endorsement from Farage.

28% of Labour Leave voters told ComRes they’d be more likely to vote Conservative in their constituency if Nigel Farage recommended they do so “in order to deliver a Brexit supporting MP”. 56% of Leave voters in Wales and the East Midlands are also of this opinion.

ComRes also asked Tory and Brexit Party supporters whether they’d support a pact between the two parties, and the results point to majorities on both sides being in favour: approaching two thirds of those intending to vote Conservative (63%) and four in five intending to vote Brexit Party (79%) agreed with the view that a pact should exist between the two parties.

Ben Walker, Founder of Britain Elects, says:
“The data we have commissioned offers further evidence to the fact British politics is experiencing a realignment where a number of Labour Leave voters are considering voting Conservative in order to see a Brexit supporting candidate win.

“What the data also shows is that Nigel Farage, once the stepping stone for sending former Labour voters gone UKIP over to the Conservatives, has sizeable influence in pushing Leave voters in a certain direction. This, and the willingness for a pact from both current Conservative and Brexit Party voters is significant insofar as it suggests the Leave vote could be less likely to fragment between the two parties in a constituency than we previously thought.”

Question 1: The best chance Brexit has of happening is for the Conservative Party and The Brexit Party to form a pact where each respective party will stand aside (on a constituency by constituency basis) in favour of the party that has the best chance of winning that seat (Asked of all voters)

Total (%)
NET: Agree 37%
NET: Disagree 18%
Strongly agree 14%
Somewhat agree 24%
Neither agree nor disagree 20%
Somewhat disagree 7%
Strongly disagree 10%
Don’t know 24%

Approaching two thirds of those intending to vote Conservative (63%) and four in five intending to vote Brexit Party (79%) agree the best chance Brexit has of happening is for the Conservative Party and The Brexit Party to form a pact where each respective party will stand aside (on a constituency by constituency basis) in favour of the party that has the best chance of winning that seat.

Approaching three in five 2016 Leave voters agree the best chance Brexit has of happening is for the Conservative Party and The Brexit Party to form a pact where each respective party will stand aside (on a constituency by constituency basis) in favour of the party that has the best chance of winning that seat (57%).

Question 2: Imagine a situation where the party you normally voted for did not have a realistic chance of winning in your local area. Would you still vote for that party, or would you instead vote for a different Brexit-supporting party with a better chance of winning? (Asked of leave voters)

Total (%)
I would vote for the party in favour of Brexit that had the best chance of winning 60%
I would vote for the party that I would normally vote for, irrespective of their chance of winning 27%
Don’t know 13%

Question 3: If Nigel Farage endorsed a Brexit supporting Conservative Party candidate in your constituency in order to deliver a Brexit supporting MP, would that make you more or less likely to vote Conservative? (Asked to leave voters)

Total (%)
NET: More likely 43%
NET: Less likely 11%
Much more likely 24%
Somewhat more likely 19%
No more or less likely 39%
Somewhat less likely 2%
Much less likely 8%
Don’t know 7%

Nigel Farage has the best chance to make people “more likely” to vote Conservative with a personal endorsement of a Brexit supporting Conservative MP in Wales (56%) and the East Midlands (56%).

28% of Labour leave voters say they would be “more likely” to vote Conservative in their constituency if Nigel Farage endorsed the Brexit supporting Conservative candidate.

Methodology Note: ComRes surveyed 2,050 British adults on 18th – 19th September 2019. Data were weighted to be demographically representative of all GB adults. All questions were also weighted by 2017 past vote recall and EU Referendum past vote. Voting Intention is also weighted by likelihood to vote. ComRes is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules. Full tables at www.comresglobal.com


Public don't trust Johnson to deliver Brexit by the 31st October

Photo: AP (Associated Press)

A new poll conducted by ComRes on behalf of Britain Elects has shed some light on how the public expect Boris Johnson’s premiership would pan out, if elected next week.53% of voters told ComRes they do not believe he will be able to deliver the United Kingdom’s departure from the European Union by the 31st October deadline.

They agreed with the statement: “I do not believe Boris Johnson will be able to deliver Brexit by the 31st of October”, whereas 17% disagreed.

The number who do not believe in Boris Johnson’s ability to deliver Brexit to the Halloween deadline include 47% of current Conservative voters and 42% of Leave voters. Three in ten (31%) of those who intend to vote for the Brexit Party, however, disagree, and do hold faith in him to deliver by October.

Britain Elects also commissioned a voting intention with ComRes, which has found the Labour Party ahead, in line with the Britain Elects poll tracker, but ahead of the governing Conservative Party by only 3pts – down from 4pts last week.

Westminster voting intention:
Labour: 28% (-)
Conservative: 25% (+1)
Brexit Party: 19% (-1)
Liberal Democrat: 17% (+2)
Green: 5% (-)
Scottish National: 4% (+1)
Changes against ComRes survey for the Sunday Express (10 – 11 Jul).

These figures see both Labour and the Tories cement their position in the polls as the top two parties, with the Brexit Party behind the second placed Tories by a margin of 6pts. The ComRes voting intention in the early days of June had this gap at 1pt.

Amongst Leave voters, the Brexit Party leads the voting intention with 38% of the vote. Conversely, among Remain voters, Labour takes the lead with 39% of the vote.

Though some are looking at the recent return of red and blue to the top two as a return to normality, it should be noted no party in the past two months has scored 30% or more in a voting intention; and that this supposed return to normality would still represent a significant loss of support for both Labour and the Conservatives.


Notes:
ComRes poll commissioned by Britain Elects
Sample Size: 2,038 GB Adults
Fieldwork: 15 – 16 July, 2019


Should the Tories and Brexit Party work together?

10 July, 2019| Polling

Should the Tories and Brexit Party work together?


Polling commissioned by Britain Elects suggests it'd be a popular decision...


Photo: European Parliament

According to a new poll conducted by YouGov on behalf of Britain Elects, 69% of Leave voters say the Conservatives and the Brexit Party should work together to secure Brexit.

This includes 82% of Conservative Leave voters who believe it is a price worth paying in order to ensure the UK’s departure from the European Union goes ahead.

More interestingly, 56% of Leave voters (and 65% of Conservative voters) believe Conservative MPs defecting to the Brexit Party would be a price worth paying to guarantee Brexit.

These findings are replicated among Remain voters, with 66% of those who backed Remain in 2016 wanting Remain parties to work together so as to put a halt to Britain’s departure.

57% of Remain voters would also be willing to see MPs from Labour defect to the Liberal Democrats in order to stop Brexit.

Both findings of Remain and Leave voters suggest a continuation in the breakdown of party loyalty, and a greater adherence to the Remain/Leave brand.

Other findings include…

49% of Leave voters told YouGov that the breakup of the United Kingdom is a price worth paying to secure Britain’s departure from the EU

18% of Leave voters want Parliament to get prorogued (temporarily closed down) so as to secure Brexit. 57% in total believe it is a price worth paying.

54% of Leave voters believe the UK becoming economically poorer would be a price worth paying to ensure Brexit goes ahead.

Note:
YouGov poll commissioned by Britain Elects
Sample Size: 1,680 GB Adults
Fieldwork: 07 – 08 July, 2019


Public opposed to military action in Syria

12 April, 2018| Polling

Public opposed to military action in Syria


Public more opposed than supportive of military action in Syria, but overwhelmingly back a no fly zone.


Surveys from pollsters YouGov and Sky Data paint a grim picture for those advocating military action in Syria.

Though both polls show a significant number of Britons are at present undecided, suggesting there’s ground to be gained by either side in the weeks and months ahead, much of those with an opinion are opposed to military action in response to the alleged chemical attack by the Syrian regime.

Sky Data has opposition to intervention with a lead of just 1pt, at 37 per cent and support at 36 per cent, while YouGov (asking with regards to the launching of cruise missiles) has opposition at 43 per cent and support at 22 per cent. The share of those undecided or with no opinion stands at 27 per cent and 34 per cent respectively.

It isn’t particularly notable that there is a 14pt disparity between the pollsters on support for military action, for Sky Data asks regarding generic military action and YouGov asks on the particular action of launching cruise missiles.
What is worth noting, however, is that Sky Data asked a second question. The question starts with a repeat of the first, as mentioned earlier…

… but also includes a prompt for the potential of conflict with Russia as a consequence of UK military intervention:

Support ‘falls’, as it were, from 36 per cent to 28 per cent.

Further findings by the pollsters include:

Britons overwhelmingly back a no fly zone over Syria:
Support: 60 per cent; Oppose: 9 per cent (YouGov).

Sending troops “to protect civilians” holds similar support to launching cruise missiles:
Support: 22 per cent; Oppose: 50 per cent (YouGov).

Sending troops to overthrow the Syrian regime has majority opposition:
Support: 17 per cent; Oppose: 51 per cent (YouGov).