12 December, 2019| GE2019

Polling Day: Britain Elects poll tracker gives the Tories a 9pt lead


Our poll tracker finishes the election campaign with a 9pt lead for the Conservatives, enough for a comfortable majority, but an error margin from a hung parliament.


Good morning! Polling day is upon us in what has been an interesting election campaign, and the Britain Elects poll tracker now has its final figures.

The poll tracker gives the Conservatives a lead of 9pts over Labour. The Tories are virtually unchanged from the 2017 election, with 43.1%, and Labour have seen its vote share fall 6pts to 33.9%. the Liberal Democrats, initially at 18% once the snap election was called, are now languishing at 11.9%, albeit 4pts above their 2017 score.

In Scotland, the Scottish Nationalists are expected to reign supreme, polling, according to the tracker, at 40.3%, up 3.4pts with a clear 10pt lead over the Tories. In Wales, Plaid Cymru are projected to take 10.8%, up 0.4pts on 2017.

At the end of the 2017 campaign our poll tracker had the Conservatives ahead of Labour by 6.5pts, when in reality, after all the votes had been counted, the actual lead was 2.5pts. We can probably pinpoint this error down to the tracker, when calculating its final figures, taking into account too many ‘older’ polls – surveys taken the week of polling day, and muting the late surge found in surveys taken on the Tuesday and Wednesday before polling day.

In the case of 2019, such a mistake does not seem with much chance of being repeated. No late Labour surge has been detected to the degree of 2017, so it would be wise to assume that the 9pt gap with the blues ahead is accurate, or, at the least, for the final result to fall within the margin of error of a 9pt Conservative lead.

For the latest results, rumours and analysis, be sure to follow Britain Elects on Twitter and keep an eye on our detailed hex map, updated live as the results come in.